Saturday I spent the afternoon in the broiling sun at the Los Angeles Coliseum, watching the USC Trojans’ final full-speed scrimmage before opening the season against San Jose State on September 5.
(No old media, hype-machine analysis from me after I eyeballed Barkley Sat.)
Why did I blow a perfect, sunny Saturday SoCal beach day for an afternoon in the bowels of the decrepit Coliseum? Earlier in the week, USC Coach Pete Carroll made the surprise announcement that true freshman Matt Barkley would start at QB for the Trojans in the home opener against SJSU. Carroll’s curious decision has made the largely-unknown Barkley the most buzzed-about college football player entering the season. And is also the reason 5,000 other folks fought with me for a spot in the shade under the Coli press box two days ago.
It’s pretty common knowledge here in SoCal how Barkley struggled his senior year at Orange County’s Mater Dei. He was picked off an astonishing 18 times in 2008, and his struggles have largely continued in fall camp with the Trojans. But despite that, Carroll announced last week that he was going with Barkley instead of junior Aaron Corp. Corp has shown considerably more polish at the position than Barkley, but clearly doesn’t have the upside potential of the rocket-armed freshman.
(Solace for SC Fans: at least the band, parking trolls were in midseason form)
So that’s where we stood as Barkley took his spot as starter last Saturday. He ended up handling 80% of the plays on the day, leading the first team and second team offense against a black-shirted scout team defense consisting of a rag tag collection of walk-ons and 3rd and 4th-stringers.
And to the surprise of no one, Barkley didn’t exactly blow away the competition.
With the scrimmage being open, the temperature in triple digits and gameday a week away, the Trojans ran as vanilla an offense as possible, so that’s something to consider when evaluating Barkley and Corp’s performance. Likewise the opposing defense was far from what the QBs will face most of the season.
So Barkley’s erratic performance Saturday made it all the more clear that he’s not ready to run a national title-contending college football offense against a top-flight defense. (See Ohio State in week two.) In fact, I don’t know if Barkley is even ready to lead the team against the competition San Jose State will provide on Saturday.
I know most of you haven’t seen Barkley play, so here’s his story: slightly undersized, at about 6-1 or so, but he’s got an Elway-type arm and very good feet. Extremely mobile and projects strength on the field. But in the 90 minutes he was on the field for Saturday’s scrimmage, I didn’t see him go through a receiver progression once. All of his completions, every single one, was either on a hot read or rollout-and-rip.
Again, I know USC wasn’t running much, but you would think Barkley would hold the ball in the pocket more than 2-3 seconds on at least a few occasions and read a coverage or two. But I didn’t see it happen.
Barkley did show flashes, completing a jaw-dropping 40-yard frozen rope to Ronald Johnson in the first half. (Johnson later broke his collarbone and is gone 6-to-8 weeks, a “crushing blow” as described by Carroll postgame.) And it’s clear he has the potential to be a dynamic playmaker at the position, but his decision-making was lacking throughout the day.
(Tanning bed-like conditions saw crowd cram into precious shade under pressbox)
For instance, twice while in the red zone and facing a heavy rush, Barkley lofted the ball up for grabs into blanket coverage in the end zone instead of just throwing the ball away. In contrast, later in the scrimmage Corp prevented a sack by quick dispensing the ball out of bounds.
It should be noted that Corp has been plagued by a slightly cracked fibula in fall camp, and has missed time. But his mobility during the scrimmage was such that he will definitely be able to play if called upon Saturday - something that would not surprise me at all.
So just exactly WHY is Barkley starting? There are a lot of theories being kicked around. One is that Carroll knows his defense this season won’t be as dominating as usual, so he wants a playmaking quarterback who can lead to more scoring. Likewise, USC doesn’t have any truly dominant skill position players on offense, so the Trojans need more than a game manager at QB -which describes Corp.
The last theory I heard came from an unnamed media member in L.A. who has covered USC football on a daily basis during Carroll’s entire tenure. Saturday he said to me that he thought that Carroll went with Barkley because he “wants his own (Tim) Tebow.”
He went on to say that Urban Meyer and Tebow are devout christians, as are Carroll and Barkley, and that Carroll’s desire to ramrod Barkley into the lineup as a freshman is a response to Meyer’s success with Tebow under similar circumstances.
Sounds contrived to me, but I haven’t been around Carroll every day since he arrived at USC - like the guy with the theory.
OK, prediction time: don’t be surprised to see Barkley really struggle against San Jose State this Saturday, with Corp relieving and leading USC to a win.
If that happens, Corp will start at Ohio State. I can see USC falling behind as Corp is unable to move the ball because of the general lack of dominant skill players on offense. Barkley will then be brought back in to finish the game as the Trojans lose.
And Corp won’t see the field the rest of the reason. Much like last year for Ohio State with how things played out between Terrelle Pryor and Todd Boeckmann.
After the OSU loss, Barkley will right himself a bit the next couple games against the sad sack Washington schools, and USC will eventually end up in a Holiday Bowl-ish postseason scenario.
Next season? Could be huge for Barkley, which is precisely the real reason I think Carroll is making this move now.
2:05 am on August 31st, 2009
*waits for Cardinal & Gold kool-aid drinkers to trash my objective, well-measured analysis solely with a hail of personal insults*
2:26 am on August 31st, 2009
As a “Cardinal & Gold kool-aid drinker,” I will try to avoid insults. Like many other Trojan fans, I was surprised to hear Carroll go with Barkley over Corp. I originally thought (hoped) that it was just Corp being more injured than we were led to believe. However, I think that it is more likely that Pete is looking to next season (or the season after). That is too bad because the defense will be better than Brooks predicts and the offense returns 9 starters (8 now that Johnson is out), including what will probably be the best offensive line in the country.
USC will probably just try and run the ball down everyone’s throat and minimize potential QB mistakes (which again, argues for Corp). Still going to the Rose Bowl though.
3:02 am on August 31st, 2009
Barkley Fall Camp Stats Compared w/ Previous QB Seasons (from RipsIt):
Matt Barkley (’09 Fall Camp): 301-for-486 • 61.9% • 8 interceptions
Mark Sanchez (2008 season): 241-for-366 • 65.8% • 10 interceptions
John David Booty (’07 season): 215-for-340 • 63.2% • 10 interceptions
John David Booty (’06 season): 269-for-436 • 61.7% • 9 interceptions
Matt Leinart (2005 season): 283-for-431 • 65.7% • 8 interceptions
Matt Leinart (2004 season): 269-for-412 • 65.3% • 6 interceptions *Heisman Trophy winner
Matt Leinart (2003 season): 255-for-402 • 63.4% • 9 interceptions
Carson Palmer (2002 season): 309-for-489 • 63.2% • 10 interceptions *Heisman Trophy winner
Yes, he hasn’t been completely lighting it up, but I don’t think he’s been as erratic as some are saying. I didn’t make it out on Sat but I heard mostly all the same things you wrote about the game. It’s going to an interesting year and while most of the time I feel that they are underrated….they might actually be overrated. Only time will tell. The Tebow Theory is there, but there is no way Pete would chose his horse based on that. I think Corp just isn’t fully healed.
3:30 am on August 31st, 2009
“Lack of dominant skill players on offense” eh? Damian Williams will be one of the best receivers in the Pac-10 this year. Anthony McCoy is a physical specimen at tight end. Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, CJ Gable, Allen Bradford and Co. round out the deepest runningback group in the nation, AND the offensive line will be better than last year. Losing Ronald Johnson will no doubt hurt, but there is an incredible amount of speed and talent on offense.
Do your research before you start concluding an elite team will end up in the Holliday Bowl and keep the ridiculous speculation (Barkley starting because he’s Christian?!? Puh-leeze) to yourself. You just come off as another stale SC hater.
5:46 am on August 31st, 2009
I noticed a smaller crowd than normal … but the game was pretty much the same. Playing with injuries spoilt it for me. Only the very very best can play when injured and still be good.
I will be there next week, but I’m taking my blinkers and something to read!
8:38 am on August 31st, 2009
The defense will be really good, SC will run the ball more, and the new play caller this year, Jeremy Bates, will be much better than last year’s, Steve Sarkisian, (now coach at U. Washington), so whoever’s at QB will have a lot of help in looking good, and making life easy. If things start to head south with Barkley, the only question is will Pete pull him for Aaron during that lousy game with the hopes of Aaron saving the day and pulling out the win, or will Pete stick with Barkley and only realize Barkley’s not fully ready until after they’ve been tagged with a loss, at which point he’ll think about playing/starting Corp.
One last thing about Barkley…does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that this 18 year old kid has a receding hair line, or at least the hair line of a 35 year old man? It ’s reminiscent of David Lee Roth when he got into his 40s.
9:45 am on August 31st, 2009
Meyer didn’t start Tebow his freshman year, he worked him in with certain packages. Those of us in flyover country just expect USC to be dominant, and to own Big Ten/Big 12 competition (2006 Rose Bowl aside.) Interesting analysis.
11:01 am on August 31st, 2009
I’m guessing the main reason Barkley is starting is Carroll’s lack of confidence in the defense. That’s his true expertise and if he KNEW he could hold opponent under two touchdowns every game, he could afford to start a game manager like Corp.
I also realize that saying USC’s skill guys are pedestrian doesn’t mean they won’t dominate the Pac-10. I can definitely see USC going to the Rose Bowl again this year with Barkley or Corp - but of course that won’t make Trojan fans happy.
11:12 am on August 31st, 2009
As for people who say I’m being unfair about offensive skill guys, maybe Damian Williams will be a beast this year. And I can see Joe McKnight changing games on special teams returns.
Outside of that tho, Barkley actually may be their best potential playmaker - once he gets his feet wet and settles in.
Those two Washington games look like they’ll be his biggest confidence builders if the OSU game turns out to be an L.
I’m not rooting against SC or Barkley btw, I live in LA and prefer USC over UCLA. I worked on the USC flagship doing pre and post for 3 years.
2:40 pm on August 31st, 2009
Also want to compliment the USC commenters here for not going nuts about my criticisms. It’s nothing personal about the team or Barkley, just giving people a headsup on what I saw and prediction of what I think may happen.
5:10 pm on August 31st, 2009
Cal is going to win the PAC 10 this year. Yes, you heard it here first. Kevin Riley and Jahvid Best are going to get it done.
7:47 pm on August 31st, 2009
Congratulations on snagging Perez Hilton to play quarterback
12:39 am on September 1st, 2009
Crackpot PC conspiracy theories about the starter decision notwithstanding, I think you underestimated the impact of Corp’s cracked fibula on the competition. If Aaron wasn’t 100%, physically OR mentally (which is not surprising after only a couple of weeks), why doesn’t it make sense to give Matt a shot at the opening game? Injuries happen all the time and coaches have to re-assess options. I agree that Aaron will be called on to lead the team if Matt falters against SJState and I’m excited to see what Corp’s scrambling ability could mean for the team. I don’t think Pete’s ego is going to get in the way of his changing his mind if the situation warrants it.
5:33 am on September 2nd, 2009
Pete Carroll is not a devout Christian. Far from it. To say Carroll is even the slightest bit religious is blatantly false.