Data Debunks Tim Donaghy’s Game Fixing Denial

It isn’t as if Tim Donaghy has any credibility left to begin with, but just in case you’re inexplicably prone to believe him about anything in the future, you might want to check in on a blog run by statistical analyst and pro sports gambler Haralabos Voulgaris.

Tim Donaghy

If you’re like me, you’ve the time nor inclination to spend more than a few seconds examining Donaghy’s repeated game-fixing denials. But Voulgaris has one small statistical example proving just how dubious those denials are.

New Year’s Day, 2007, Charlotte at Minnesota. Donaghy working the game.

Donaghy claimed in his book that he told his mob buddies to bet Charlotte and take the points (+4). His supposed reasoning for the Bobcat wager:

In addition to the anticipated crackdown on Garnett, I liked the way Charlotte coach Bernie Bickerstaff had his squad playing high-energy basketball most nights. I called Tommy and told him to bet Charlotte.

The Bobcats played well early but fell part during the second half, getting outscored 34-18 in the fourth quarter. Garnett played exceptionally well for Minnesota, while Charlotte’s players were arguing amongst themselves all night. Much of the angst was directed at the Bobcat’s Adam Morrison, who took several off-balanced, ill-advised shots down the stretch in what had been a fairly tight contest.

Minnesota kept its composure and pulled out the road win 102-96. It was a loss for me, Tommy, and Ba Ba, and once again there were no apples coming my way.

Again, Donaghy claimed that because he and his cohorts bet Charlotte +4, they lost.

Unfortunately for Donaghy, Voulgaris has since discovered an extremely rare betting line move due to heavy betting on … wait for it … Minnesota.

In my database I have the betting line opening at Minnesota -2.5 and closing at Minnesota -4 - Absent of any injury or late breaking information this usually means that an imbalance in Minnesota wagers forced the linesmakers to move the line to -3.5 or higher.

Or to put it more bluntly, someone bet the sh– out of Minnesota.

Voulgaris also cites wild, similar moves at two other sportsbooks.

Much, much more convincing though is Voulgaris’ call-by-call breakdown by Donaghy that night. It’s nothing short of unbelievable.

Tim Donaghy foul+violation details:

(Donaghy) Calls favoring CHA 0

(Donaghy) Calls favoring MIN 17

Read more…

Donaghy: “Orlando should dust off its golf clubs”

WEEI midday sports update anchor Chris Villani reports via Twitter today:

Tim Donaghy

WEEI producer called Tim Donaghy & told him who tonight’s Game 6 refs are, Donaghy’s reply “Orlando should dust off their golf clubs.”

The officiating crew for tonight’s Boston-Orlando matchup in Boston is Mike Callahan, Monty McCutchen and Ken Mauer.

Celtics Blog has a scouting report, including statistical tendencies, on each guy. Read more…

Those Who Ignore Twistory Bound To ReTweet It

Jared Dudley Tweet after the Suns evened their NBA playoff series with the Lakers at two games apiece:

Jarred Dudley Tweets On Being Tied 2-2 With the Lakers

Eric Maynor Tweet after the Thunder evened their NBA playoff series with the Lakers at two games apiece:

Eric Maynor Tweet On Being Tied 2-2 With Lakers In the Playoffs

Apparently neither is a 60 Minutes fan.

Tim Donaghy On NBA Playoffs Being Fixed

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Donaghy: Rivers ‘questioned’ Ref’s Sex Preference

Sunday night disgraced former NBA referee Tim Donaghy appeared on a podcast hosted by Celtics bloggers Nick Gelso and Brandon Paul on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Doc Rivers Bill Kennedy

During his two-hour guest appearance, Donaghy was asked the following:

One of the referees I’ve been annoyed with over the years is Bill Kennedy, every time he has a Celtics game I almost know that we’re not getting calls. Is his relationships with Doc Rivers or the Celtics organization as a whole something you know about.

Donaghy’s response to the question was unexpected, to say the least.

Read more…

Taiwanese Baseball Scandal: Say It Ain’t So, Chen!

Say what you will about the Tim Donaghy mess - at least if a guy with the last name of “Gotti” tried to buy an NBA team, I feel confident that Commissioner David Stern would be skeptical. Apparently that’s not the case in baseball in Taiwan, where a consortium of alleged bookies and gangsters bought a team this season. And - what a shock - the CHINA POST reports that the team has been suspended and players and their coach have been arrested on charges of throwing a game last month.

Eight Chens Out

The team in question is the D-Media T-Rex, who play in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. Their team is co-owned by noted Taiwanese crime magnate Lin Ping-wen, who allegedly strong-armed his way into a share of the team’s ownership, and then started using his influence to fix games. Among the people arrested so far are bookmakers, the team’s coach and three players, including former MLB pitcher Cory Bailey, who also doubled as the team’s pitching coach.

Read more…

Blogs: If You Find A Chili-Stained $100, It’s A-Rod’s

A-Rod using $100 to wipe himself

  • Chase Daniel and Warren Buffett: gangstas.
  • The Phoenix Suns are doing their best to stay off of YouTube, says the EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE’s Jerry Brown.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore tells the KANSAS CITY STAR’s Joe Posnanski that he’s had just about enough of sucking: “We’re not a young team anymore. We’re not an improving team anymore. There are no more excuses.”

Read more…

Heidi Watney Provides Some Great Fenway Views

Heidi Watney is starting to receive Erin Andrews-levels of obsession.

Heidi Watney Fenway Park bent over

Emmitt Smith will no longer be enjoyed on ESPN’s “NFL Countdown“.

• With Internet problems all around Beijing, Olympic Village athletes will have to get their porn the old fashioned way - from dirty books at the local bookshop.

• Meanwhile, gender testers at the Games just want to make sure girls will be girls.

• “Sun-ny day, beating the clouds away” - Cubs fans pummel a White Sox supporter while attending a 2-year-old’s Sesame Street birthday party.

Read more…

Tim Donaghy Sentenced To 15 Months In Prison

ESPN reports that Tim Donaghy has been sentenced to 15 months in prison for providing inside tips to gamblers wagering on NBA games.

Tim Donaghy squat

It’s the same term Donaghy’s buddy James Battista received last week for placing bets on games based on Tim’s illegal tips.

The ex-ref is somewhat fortunate, as he could have faced up to 33 months behind bars. But NEWSDAY follows up that the ruling by Federal Judge Carol Amontook into account Donaghy’s cooperation in the investigation.”

Read more…

Cheeky Cheerleader Photos Cause Coach To Quit

• Provocative photos of CFL cheerleaders cause a coach to call it quits.

CFL cheerleaders

• Coming to a college campus near you - NCAA-regulated beach volleyball.

LeBron James promises the U.S. will win basketball gold once again.

• Unfortunately for swimmer Jessica Hardy, her chances for Olympic glory have been sunk by a failed drug test.

Happy* 44th* birthday*, Barry* Bonds*! Read more…

Donaghy’s Gambling Partners Sentenced to Prison

The Tim Donaghy saga may soon be coming to a close, as the ex-NBA ref accused of gambling will learn his fate next week. If he receives the same sentence his gambling pals got, Tim will be trading zebra stripes for prison stripes.

donaghy open mouth

John Marzulli of the NEW YORK DAILY NEWS reports that the two men implicated in the Donaghy scandal were both sentenced to jail on Thursday. James Battista was given a 15 month term, while Thomas Martino will be behind bars for one year & one day. Read more…