In the wake of last night’s COACHFAIL in the Pats-Colts game, the universe and its mom have been leveling unvarnished invective at Bill Belichick. Rightly so, at first blush; with a few seconds before the 2 minute warning and protecting a dwindling 34-28 lead, Belichick opted to go for it on 4th and 2… from New England’s own 28 yard line. The try failed by a slim margin, the Colts took over, and Peyton Manning calmly guided his team to the winning touchdown with 13 seconds to play. Ballgame.
(Wanna get away?)
So, yeah. Going for it and failing from the hinterlands of Obvious Punt Territory - soon to become the USA’s 51st state - and watching the game slip away immediately afterwards is an unforgivably bad decision, yes? Well, not so much. Contrary to immediate intuition, it was, in fact, the Patriots’ best chance at winning the game.
Here’s the thing: punting and going for it and failing accomplish the same thing: giving the ball back to the Colts. The only difference is where they get it on the field. Oh, Peyton Manning will accept your charity, no questions asked, but he certainly doesn’t need it.
Let’s let SMART FOOTBALL explain:
If you go for it, your chance of winning hinges on two outcomes: (a) if you get the first down, you win the game; and (b) if you don’t get it, you still have a chance to stop Manning. So your chance of winning if you go for it is the sum of (a) your chance of converting; and (b) your chance of stopping Manning from the 30 yard line.
My best estimation is that the odds of converting on fourth and two (around 60% for the league, so probably closer to 65% for New England) plus stopping Manning from the thirty are greater than your odds of merely stopping Manning from seventy or so. Remember, the decision is also context specific: Manning was playing great and they had a gassed defense.
Lo and behold, NFL ADVANCED STATS agrees:
A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it.
Obviously, these are baseline numbers that are subject to being perverted by the influence of terrible offenses; the Colts’ chances of scoring from either part of the field are substantially higher, but the sample size isn’t big enough to put a reliable number to it.
Is this to say that Belichick’s coaching was just fine and in no way contributed to the loss? Hell, no. In fact, he made multiple calls on that last possession that doomed the Patriots and put them out of a position to win. Yes, he should have gone for it, but with 3rd and 2, your opponent treating time outs like gold, and punting out of the question, run the f–king ball! Vince Verhai of FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS has more damning details:
I’m fine with going for it on fourth down, but if you’re going to do that, the third-down call MUST be a running play. Even if it fails, you’ll probably still gain one yard, and that makes the fourth-down conversion easier. Going into the game, New England’s offensive line was fifth in power situations; Indianapolis’ defensive line was 26th. If they run twice, it’s almost inconceivable that they don’t pick up the first down.
And yet Belichick went with two impotent pass plays instead. That, friends, is his biggest mistake by far. Bemoan how he went about it, not that he went about it. Anything else is just knee-jerk, uninformed hindsight. It’s bad when media members do it, and it’s bad when fans do it.
Oh - and are we sure Kevin Faulk was still bobbling the ball when he was pushed back from the 30? He did bobble it when he first caught it at the 31, but it sure looked like he had possession before getting pushed back all the way. Observe:
A little dicey there, no?
The point is this: Belichick put his team in the best position, statistically speaking, to win. Was it the right call? Obviously not, because his team didn’t convert and they lost. Was it the smartest call? Yes. Know the difference.
10:31 am on November 16th, 2009
I think Belichick thought he was playing Madden.
10:48 am on November 16th, 2009
what?, the colts won…dang! I thought that game was over I turned it off.
10:53 am on November 16th, 2009
Whatever. Anything to keep Belichick looking like a genius. What the stats don’t account for is going for it on 4th down against Peyton Manning inside your own 40.
dumb
dumb
and more dumb
11:04 am on November 16th, 2009
thanks for this. couldn’t agree more.
11:16 am on November 16th, 2009
mister2d…….Actually, that’s exactly what the stats account for….dumb…..dumb…..
11:37 am on November 16th, 2009
I agree 100%. You have to go for the win. He didn’t blow it, the players did. He gave them a chance to win. I think the other point is correct too, the real mistake was not running the ball both plays.
12:42 pm on November 16th, 2009
Football players don’t like Math
12:53 pm on November 16th, 2009
Although Belichick’s call was questionable, don’t forget that the Pat’s had several chances to ice the game- Maroney fumbles going in and then on the next possession the Pats stall inside the 10 yard line and settle for the field goal. If they score on either possession it’s probably ‘game over’ Belichick’s call would have been meaningless at that point
1:13 pm on November 16th, 2009
What none of these stats and probabilities account for is the huge momentum shift that took place when the 4th and 2 attempt failed.
1:26 pm on November 16th, 2009
In ther big picture this loss means nothing to the Pats, they lead the AFC East, and will probably win it. So they have to travel to Indy and play them again. Do you really think the Pats don’t think they can’t hang 40+ points on Indy, remember the 2 turnovers one (the fumble in the endzone) a sure 7 points. If they get either of them we aren’t even talking about this!
1:27 pm on November 16th, 2009
Why didn’t Tom Brady just jump up and down and point to wear he wanted the refs to put the ball?
2:10 pm on November 16th, 2009
As a Colts fan - first of all…thanks Bill and Co. And a special thanks to Faulk’s greasy hands.
That said - I totally agree. This was the right call and I had a small bit of panic last night as a Colts fan when that ball was actually snapped for them to go for it.
Regardless of Peyton getting the ball on the 28 or his own 28 - he had PLENTY of time to drive the field. What may have actually worked, even if the conversion had failed as it did, was the Colts would score too quickly and Brady and Moss only have to get in field goal range. Luckily, not only was it a sure thing that the Colts were going to score, but Peyton was able to rely on the run to get good chunks of yardage and chew up clock.
Best finish to a game yet this year!
2:11 pm on November 16th, 2009
Oh - and as for whether or not Faulk had possession, I think we should take that call out of the hands of all Colts and Pats fans and ask….let’s say the Raiders fans?
See: Tuck Rule and Karma…..
2:19 pm on November 16th, 2009
Uh, no. Bad call. He told his defense he doesn’t trust them at all, even though they made the Colts punt 7 times that game.
What he should have done on third down shouldn’t factor in his call on 4th down. What he didn’t do has no affect on what he should do next. If he made that call on 4th down because he wished he ran on 3rd, well, that would be even dumber than not punting.
3:47 pm on November 16th, 2009
Regardless of whether the Pats punted or went for it on 4th down, the Colts would have won this game either way — there was simply no way the Pats defense was going to stop them regardless of where they started their drive.
I actually think Belichick was right to make this call because at least Brady had been converting pretty consistently against their defense all night long. It was his defense that wasn’t stopping them.
4:16 pm on November 16th, 2009
The formula doesn’t include a stats for the following; a. the colts only had one timeout left and the 2 min warning was gone, b. Manning had thrown 2 int in the quarter, c. colts rookies were dropping passes, d. and you’re the Patriots and should have been able to win that game on defense. This is the type of call a HS coach would make. I’m glad it didn’t work, hopefully we never see any NFL teams make the same stupid gamble ever again. Pathetic.
5:39 pm on November 16th, 2009
Joshua, you’re missing the point. The dumb call was not running on third and 2 with a lead and time running down. he did show more faith in his offense than his defense, but you could argue he would rather take his chances against getting 2 yards against Indy’s D or giving manning and their O a chance to win. Plus, NE’s D still had a chance to stop them, 28 yards should not be a gimme if your D is playoff worthy
11:30 am on November 19th, 2009
Going for it on fourth down requires 100% success. In other words, you have one chance to make one play!
Punting transfers the probability of making a mistake to Indy. After the punt, Indy must make SEVERAL plays and avoid costly mistakes. After the punt he Pats would have opportunities for sacks, fumbles, interceptions, deflections, bad snaps, no gains and goal line stands.
Next time …PUNT!