Excuse us for drifting back approximately 4000 years in Internet time, but we were absolutely struck by an offhand comment by Nate Silver on BASEBALL PROSPECTUS last Thursday that we haven’t seen anyone else bring to the fore yet.
While testing out a new statistical tool that compares the offensive contributions of all players at each position since 1954, Silver points out that center fielders have offered less with their bats with each passing decade (subscription required):
“The most dramatic shift has come at center field, which has gone from being an above-average offensive position to one that’s distinctly below average. Granted, we are starting our graph right in the era of Willie, Mickey, and Duke, but the decline of center field offense has been steady over the past 50 years. My pet theory is that this might have to do with the decreasing participation of black players in the game; among the top 50 seasons for VORP at the center field position since 1957, 27 were accomplished by African-Americans.”
According to this intriguing theory (or at least our interpretation), African-Americans make better center fielders than white and Latinos on the whole. Therefore, their slow disappearance from the game has lowered the skill level on the field and weakened Major League Baseball’s product.
Again, we hope you’ll forgive us, but that seemed worthy of further discussion.
Of course, Bud Selig has made the inclusion and celebration of African-Americans in the game one of his top priorities. Therefore, we don’t fault the effort. However, we always considered it more of a marketing issue. Fewer African-American fans meant fewer people to sell ballcaps to, similar to NASCAR and the Latino viewer.
It never really occurred to us that we were perhaps facing a measurable second talent drain from the game due to the absence of African-Americans. That’s assuming, of course, we are. We always tread on unstable ground when we talk about gritty gutty Wes Welker or let Dusty Baker talk about race.
Therefore, we turn to you, considerate reader. What do you think about Silver’s theory? How else do you think the game might be affected by the absence of the African-American player? How far can we safely carry this notion, if at all?
12:28 pm on June 22nd, 2008
I think a valid (and taboo) question to also ask is do the powers in MLB (see ownership) want black players back? I think some probably don’t.
Perhaps that’s one of the reasons for the roster-demo trend we’re seeing. It’s a stretch, and hasn’t been talked about much, but I think there could be something there (I worked in baseball (majors and minors) for 16 years, so I’m not just talking out of my a$$ here).
12:33 pm on June 22nd, 2008
For now I want to say the CF position is going through a down cycle in power and overall offense. There are quite a few starting center fielders that are not batting high in the line-up (thus, not power/average guys or guys who will get on base reliably.)
CF was always viewed as a five-tool position, and a lot of those players currently in the league are having disappointing seasons (Sizemore), doing OK but under much higher expectations (Beltran), have switched to teams that don’t emphasize their power numbers as much (Hunter), or are on a serious decline (Andruw Jones). Given the lack of the five-tool guy in CF, managers will go to the guy who can cover the defensive territory.
12:33 pm on June 22nd, 2008
I cannot imagine there is a single owner that doesn’t want the black player back in larger numbers for moral reasons and for economic ones. Those parks don’t usually fill themselves and everyone can buy a hat because someone they can relate with wears the same hat. Owners are always motivated by money.
12:35 pm on June 22nd, 2008
I can’t post the chart here in good conscience, S2N, but the decline from 1954 to today is steady. The last few years are just the lowest spot on a very clear trend line.
12:35 pm on June 22nd, 2008
Brooks - there is that, and it fits into the overall trend of owners and teams emphasizing academies in Latin America, where players are not subject to the draft and can be had on the cheap.
12:40 pm on June 22nd, 2008
Tuffy - re: the chart. Hm. I don’t subscribe to BP, but still, can’t explain that one away. But I’m with you on the money part. An owner would not actively go out of his way to cut out black players intentionally, but with profits through the roof with a declining number of black players, they’re not going to go out of their way for an outreach effort as much.
1:26 am on June 23rd, 2008
The owner’s choices in field managers, front office positions, and other coaching positions would also very much support Brooks’ theory.
6:44 am on June 23rd, 2008
Did you see Sunday Night Baseball? If the Cubs had the College of Coaches, the White Sox might as well be Rainbow U. I couldn’t disagree more.
6:01 pm on June 23rd, 2008
Look at the stats Tuffy. Sample size is an issue here.
7:14 am on June 24th, 2008
Which stats? Every at bat by every center fielder since 1954 or every coach, manager, and front office position since 1954?