In quick succession recently, the NBA lost Yao Ming and Dwayne Wade to season-ending injuries. In each case, the player had apparently been struggling through one or more injuries and simply could not risk playing any longer. Also, each player had strong reasons to begin the healing process as soon as possible: Olympic glory.

Yao has extraordinarily strong national responsibilities, but both players have immense marketing muscle behind their athletic efforts under the international spotlight - in the most lucrative emerging consumer market.

Which leaves the obvious question: which players have the most incentive to set aside the remainder of the NBA season to better prepare for Olympic success this summer in Beijing?

There are three key components in an NBA player’s decision to look beyond the end of the season and towards the Olympics:

• Is my team still in the playoff hunt? If so, it might be difficult for a key cog for a team with notions of NBA playoff glory to sneak off to the trainer’s table without a solid excuse.
• Am I injured? This one’s key. North American sports fans don’t recognize players taking time off to prepare or participate in international tournaments of any kind. If the aliens arrive tomorrow and demand to take on LeBron James in a single game to save the world, ‘Bron will have to ask them to schedule it for early July or risk his Nike deal.
• Do I have a realistic shot at greatly improving my marketability in Beijing? If there’s not a compelling financial reason to leave the NBA behind a bit early and possibly draw the ire of local and national fans, players should just lace ‘em up tighter until they can’t go anymore.

All nine national team rosters (Angola, Argentina, Australia, China, Iran, Lithuania, Russia, Spain, and the United States) have been combed for NBA players and run through these three questions. The players listed below could honestly answer at least “maybe” on two out of the three questions above and are most likely to start their summer vacations early.

United States Players
Kobe Bryant - Kobe’s got a nasty pinkie ligament tear that could really use surgery and six weeks off. Also, Kobe’s a player with international flair that would shine under the Chinese sun. Good luck dragging him off a Finals contender before the digit flies off his hand, though. He’s not going anywhere. Likelihood: LOW

Kevin Durant - The Sonics are already on the move; why not Durant? There’s no playoff run in Seattle. Also, a blossoming star like Durant with Nike’s power behind him could impress many new consumers in China. However, he doesn’t have a pesky injury yet, no more than any other player this late in the season. Also, he’ll be a long shot for the final roster. Likelihood: LOW

Shawn Marion - Lousy team? Check. Dwayne Wade already leading the way? Check. A chance to rake in the renminbi? Maybe. He doesn’t have anything more to prove to potential suitors this summer, either. Watch those stairs, Shawn; hate to see you trip and hurt yourself slightly. Riley will probably be too far out of town to catch you. Likelihood: MEDIUM

Mike Miller - The Grizzlies are enough of a disaster to apply for FEMA aid (and don’t think owner Michael Heisley hasn’t thought of it). Also, back injuries like the one Miller just came back from have been known to recur. Still, Miller shouldn’t rush to update his passport; even if he makes the team, he will be remembered only if he screws up. Likelihood: LOW

Michael Redd - Assuming Colangelo still wants him, Redd’s just spinning his wheels in Milwaukee until summer. Between the Bucks’ lousy record and the potential for a strong halo effect with Yi Jianlian (aka the Tracy McGrady Rule), Redd must fall asleep by counting Chinese owners of his jersey. Unfortunately, he’s the picture of health. Stupid well-being. Likelihood: MEDIUM

International Players
Yi Jianlian - He’s been injury prone all season (ankle and shoulder) and has been nursing a sore wrist of unknown cause over the last two weeks. Also, he has the same responsibility as Yao to show up in time for the first Olympic tip for national and financial reasons. Don’t expect him to be too brave with that wrist. Likelihood: HIGH

Andrew Bogut - Combine the appeal of improving his cash flow after an improbable underdog run for Australia with the Bucks’ lousy record and a nagging hip injury and Bogut’s missing Fan Appreciation Night this year. Also, why stick around if Yi gets to go home early? That’s, like, totally not fair. Likelihood: HIGH

Parade of Previously Injured Stars
Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, and Jorge Garbajosa are all trying to come back from setbacks that shut down their seasons before they began. All three hope to be back in time for the Olympics and could use NBA games to raise fitness, but none are likely to wear their team-issued garb much this season. They don’t count here because taking the year off wasn’t their bright idea.

Results
The NBA players most likely to find a sympathetic doctor to prescribe 20 games’ rest before the Olympics appear to be Yi Jianlian and Andrew Bogut, with Michael Redd and Shawn Marion being the most likely Americans to start memorizing Mandarin phrasebooks before the rest of the class.

A word to the wise for those players toughing out injuries: remember Garbajosa’s sad tale. He did his team proud in Eurobasket 2007, helping them reach the finals despite having already qualified for the Olympics. Unfortunately, he did not let his broken leg and dislocated ankle heal in time from his early March injury and now has his Olympic dreams and career in doubt.

On the other hand, no one wants to see Jianlian, Bogut, and Redd all disappear at once and leave Milwaukee’s best fans with large doses of Dan Gadzuric. That could easily lead to an international incident.